Can you predict the future?

Can you predict the future? I find this a very compelling question, especially when it comes to the incredible pace of change we are experiencing across industries and across our business landscapes. While we all know we can’t predict the future, having some way to think about all of the trends and change occurring will help you plan more effectively for the future. And while she isn’t a clairvoyant, I have the good fortune to work with someone who is magical in her ability to help companies think about the future by engaging leaders with a process called Scenario Planning.

Maggie Kolkena is my wonderful colleague who I co-facilitate a lot of global design thinking programs with. I am so excited about the outcomes of Scenario Planning that I wanted to share it with you. That’s why I’ve dedicated this Velocity Report to it and asked Maggie to share more. She began with a quote:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  ~ Yogi Berra

Maggie, what are you seeing out there?
 
A lot of organizations are planning for a future that has a very strong resemblance to the past. Even the most historically stable industries are in experiencing disruption or rapid change. And we see that the pace of change is moving too quickly to simply extrapolate from the past. 
 
What is Scenario Planning?
 
Scenario Planning is one method to explore the combined impact of multiple issues and factors related to your business. It is an increasingly popular method to manage a high degree of complexity, risk, and uncertainty when thinking about the future.
 
What are the key steps to creating scenarios for your organization?

1. Become a trend nerd. Track elements that might influence your business. A helpful acronym is STEEP:

• Social: consumer trends, demographics (aging to migration), social movements, lifestyles

• Technological: what’s new and what’s becoming obsolete, new materials, energy options, processes

• Economical: tax and interest rates, employment figures, housing patterns

• Environmental: climate shifts, weather patterns

• Political: tariffs and trade deals, labor and consumer laws, zoning, party politics

2. Identify the Driving Forces that could most impact your business and create a Scenario Grid.Scenario thinking is both art and science.This step is where the ‘art” and experimentation comes in.Download this example from a Talent Scenario Session:

3. Once you have your Scenario Matrix, it’s time to fill out the squares with stories (scenarios). Describe each quadrant with data and imagination. How would you attract and retain a scarce workforce who prefer the flexibility of a technologically-enabled work experience? Experts in Artificial Intelligence might belong in this lower-right quadrant.

4. When your stories are complete it’s time to explore contingency planning. How might you optimize your organization for any of these plausible, possible futures?

Any other advice?

This is not an activity to be done in a vacuum. Involve your team and colleagues. You will all benefit from the shared mindset and expanded POV.

If you would like to learn more, here’s an Introduction to Scenario Thinking and a list of sites for gathering Trend Data: https://thirdthought.com/scenario-thinking/

This is my post in a series to talk about building the 21st Century Organization or what has been coined, The Workplace of the Future. If you are wondering where to start, or how if it would be possible to quantify your organization’s ability to innovate, transform and grow for the future, you’ll be very interested in my next post.

Get ready—your future is just around the corner!